Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Edinburgh City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.
Forfar Athletic: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. Edinburgh City: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Forfar Athletic scores most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 64); Forfar Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 70); Edinburgh City scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 66); Edinburgh City concedes most in the 61-75 band (22 of 91). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Forfar Athletic -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.1 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 64 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 70 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 48 read -- then won 14, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 48 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Edinburgh City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.9 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.6 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 66 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 14.
When it concedes
Of 91 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 22; 76-90+: 21.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 48 read -- then won 13, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 48 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.