Scottish League Two, game week 13 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Forfar Athletic the bigger side: 4th against 10th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Forfar Athletic takes 1.56 points a game, Edinburgh City 1.14 -- the block form is Forfar Athletic's. +0.45 points a game is the venue form gap, in Forfar Athletic's favour: Forfar Athletic takes 1.78 a game at home over the last two seasons, Edinburgh City 1.33 away. Forfar Athletic scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Edinburgh City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (24 of 48 and 23 of 48); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Forfar Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 48; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Edinburgh City's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 48.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Forfar Athletic 1.61 goals expected, Edinburgh City 1.03, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Forfar Athletic 1.96 (51%), the draw 4.02 (25%), Edinburgh City 4.13 (24%). The market's averages: 2.86, 3.35 and 2.10. The widest gap is on Edinburgh City: the market is shorter (2.10) than our 4.13 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.04 (49%), under 2.5 1.96 (51%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.70, under 2.5 1.99. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.95 (51%), no 2.06 (49%). The market's averages: yes 1.58, no 2.15. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Forfar Athletic's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (43%). In Edinburgh City's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.