Annan Athletic scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Kelty Hearts scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Annan Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Kelty Hearts is softest.
Annan Athletic: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. Kelty Hearts: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Annan Athletic scores most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 60); Annan Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 82); Kelty Hearts scores most in the 16-30 band (11 of 48); Kelty Hearts concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 84). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Annan Athletic -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 60 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 60 (38%).
When it concedes
Of 82 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 82 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 48 read -- then won 10, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 3 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 48 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Kelty Hearts -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 48 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 84 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 84 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 48 read -- then won 10, drew 2, lost 4; conceded first in 30 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 48 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 17, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.