Scottish League Two, game week 13 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Kelty Hearts is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.54 points a game is the venue form gap, in Annan Athletic's favour: Annan Athletic takes 1.42 a game at home over the last two seasons, Kelty Hearts 0.88 away. Annan Athletic scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Kelty Hearts scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Annan Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Kelty Hearts is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (19 of 48 and 16 of 48); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Annan Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 48; Annan Athletic finds its goals latest of all -- 23 of its 60 after the 75th, and Kelty Hearts concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Annan Athletic 1.80 goals expected, Kelty Hearts 1.43, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Kelty Hearts's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Annan Athletic 2.16 (46%), the draw 4.37 (23%), Kelty Hearts 3.25 (31%). The market's averages: 2.25, 3.40 and 2.62. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.40) than our 4.37 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.60 (63%), under 2.5 2.68 (37%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.66, under 2.5 2.15. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.57 (64%), no 2.74 (36%). The market's averages: yes 1.55, no 2.30. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Annan Athletic's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In Kelty Hearts's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.