Raith Rovers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 1-15.
Raith Rovers: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Dunfermline Athletic: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Raith Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 63); Raith Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 51); Dunfermline Athletic scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 67); Dunfermline Athletic concedes most in the 1-15 band (14 of 48). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Raith Rovers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.1 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 63 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 63 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 51 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 51 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 49 read -- then won 16, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 3 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 49 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2.
Dunfermline Athletic -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 67 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 67 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 48 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 14 of 48 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 49 read -- then won 18, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 49 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 18:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.