Scottish Championship, game week 14 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Raith Rovers and Dunfermline Athletic finished near neighbours last season -- 5th and 4th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Raith Rovers takes 1.56 points a game, Dunfermline Athletic 2.00 -- the block form is Dunfermline Athletic's. +0.19 points a game is the venue form gap, in Raith Rovers's favour: Raith Rovers takes 1.67 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dunfermline Athletic 1.48 away. Raith Rovers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 1-15. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 38% of their games, both teams scoring in 35%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 64%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Dunfermline Athletic lands the first blow more often (24 of 49 to 18 of 49); Dunfermline Athletic is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (14 of its 48 conceded before the 16th); Raith Rovers finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 63 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Raith Rovers 1.39 goals expected, Dunfermline Athletic 1.31, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Raith Rovers 2.56 (39%), the draw 3.88 (26%), Dunfermline Athletic 2.85 (35%). The market's averages: 2.55, 3.00 and 2.50. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.00) than our 3.88 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.97 (51%), under 2.5 2.03 (49%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.20, under 2.5 1.65. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.82 (55%), no 2.22 (45%). The market's averages: yes 1.83, no 1.86. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Raith Rovers's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 18 (75%). In Dunfermline Athletic's own 25 away matches read, 13 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 64% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:03 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.