Ross County scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Peterhead scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Ross County's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Peterhead is softest.
Ross County: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Peterhead: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Ross County scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 80); Ross County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 65); Peterhead scores most in the 46-60 band (13 of 59); Peterhead concedes most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 85). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Ross County -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 1.3 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 80 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 80 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 65 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 65 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 49 read -- then won 19, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 0 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 49 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Peterhead -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 2.0 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 59 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 85 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 85 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 49 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 32 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 49 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.