Scottish League One, game week 14 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Ross County is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Ross County takes 1.50 points a game, Peterhead 0.00 -- the block form is Ross County's. +0.63 points a game is the venue form gap, in Ross County's favour: Ross County takes 1.54 a game at home over the last two seasons, Peterhead 0.92 away. Ross County scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Peterhead scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Ross County's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Peterhead is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 60%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Ross County lands the first blow more often (26 of 49 to 17 of 49); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Ross County's -- two goals clear in 17 of 49, against 10 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ross County's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 49; Ross County finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 80 after the 75th, and Peterhead concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Ross County 2.43 goals expected, Peterhead 1.06, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Ross County's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Ross County 1.48 (67%), the draw 5.65 (18%), Peterhead 6.73 (15%). The market's averages: 1.17, 6.60 and 9.00. The widest gap is on Peterhead: the market offers 9.00 against our 6.73. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.48 (68%), under 2.5 3.10 (32%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.38, under 2.5 2.82. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.68 (60%), no 2.48 (40%). The market's averages: yes 1.86, no 1.80. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ross County's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 16 (67%). In Peterhead's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 60% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.