Match result
Our tissue: Montrose 2.15 (46%), the draw 3.98 (25%), East Fife 3.52 (28%). The market's averages: 2.27, 3.20 and 2.70. The widest gap is on East Fife: the market is shorter (2.70) than our 3.52 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Montrose v East Fife
Scottish League One, game week 14 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The appraisal
Montrose and East Fife finished near neighbours last season -- 8th and 9th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Montrose takes 1.67 points a game, East Fife 1.00 -- the block form is Montrose's. +0.79 points a game is the venue form gap, in Montrose's favour: Montrose takes 1.50 a game at home over the last two seasons, East Fife 0.71 away. Montrose scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; East Fife scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Montrose's strongest scoring spell is exactly where East Fife is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.
How it may unfold
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Montrose lands the first blow more often (22 of 49 to 14 of 48); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Montrose's -- two goals clear in 12 of 49, against 3 of 48; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Montrose's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 49.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Montrose 1.56 goals expected, East Fife 1.16, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our numbers against the market’s
Over or under 2.5 goals
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.95 (51%), under 2.5 2.05 (49%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.92, under 2.5 1.87. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Both teams to score
Our tissue: yes 1.84 (54%), no 2.19 (46%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.05. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
The 2UP fact
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Montrose's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 16 (67%). In East Fife's own 24 away matches read, 9 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.