Cove Rangers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; East Kilbride scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Cove Rangers: 47 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season. East Kilbride: 47 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League Two.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Cove Rangers scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 50); Cove Rangers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 59); East Kilbride scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 97); East Kilbride concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Cove Rangers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.0 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 50 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 50 (26%). (1 of its 47 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 59 (27%). (1 of its 47 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 46 read -- then won 11, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 0 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 46 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
East Kilbride -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 47 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 97 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 14.
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 47 read -- then won 21, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 25 of its 47 read, winning 23 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 17:08 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.