Ross County scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hamilton Academical scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Hamilton Academical's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ross County is softest.
Ross County: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Hamilton Academical: 42 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Ross County scores most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 47); Ross County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 61); Hamilton Academical scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 65); Hamilton Academical concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 43). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Ross County -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.4 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 47 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 47 (19%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 61 (25%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 41 read -- then won 12, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 0 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 41 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Hamilton Academical -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 42 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.3 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 65 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 65 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 43 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 6.
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 42 read -- then won 21, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 0 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 2 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 42 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Built 06:36 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.