Scottish League One, game week 7 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Ross County is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.08 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hamilton Academical's favour: Ross County takes 1.35 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hamilton Academical 1.43 away. Ross County scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hamilton Academical scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Hamilton Academical's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ross County is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 39%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 61%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hamilton Academical lands the first blow more often (25 of 42 to 18 of 41); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hamilton Academical's -- two goals clear in 15 of 42, against 10 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ross County's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 41; Ross County finds its goals latest of all -- 9 of its 47 after the 75th; Hamilton Academical finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 65 after the 75th, and Ross County concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Ross County 1.38 goals expected, Hamilton Academical 1.76, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Ross County's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Ross County 3.31 (30%), the draw 4.30 (23%), Hamilton Academical 2.15 (47%). The market's averages: 1.82, 3.45 and 3.69. The widest gap is on Hamilton Academical: the market offers 3.69 against our 2.15. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.65 (61%), under 2.5 2.55 (39%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.85, under 2.5 1.85. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.61 (62%), no 2.63 (38%). The market's averages: yes 1.75, no 1.95. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ross County's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (65%). In Hamilton Academical's own 21 away matches read, 12 (57%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 61% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
This match has kicked off since these figures were built — everything above was read from before kick-off only.
Built 06:36 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.