Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 37% of their games, both teams scoring in 45%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Greenock Morton: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. Stenhousemuir: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Greenock Morton's numbers over its games, Stenhousemuir's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Greenock Morton's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Stenhousemuir's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games.
The two sides
Greenock Morton -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 48 (44%); over 1.5 in 37 (77%); over 3.5 in 11 (23%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 24 (33%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 27 of its own 48 (56%). At home: 11 of its 24 (46%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 48 (21%); failed to score in 15 (31%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Greenock Morton's own 48 matches read: Greenock Morton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (33%). Greenock Morton itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 24.
Stenhousemuir -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 49 (31%); over 1.5 in 31 (63%); over 3.5 in 9 (18%). Away: over 2.5 in 5 of its 24 (21%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 17 of its own 49 (35%). Away: 7 of its 24 (29%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 24 of its own 49 (49%); failed to score in 12 (24%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Stenhousemuir's own 49 matches read: Stenhousemuir or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (43%). Stenhousemuir itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.