Greenock Morton scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Stenhousemuir's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Greenock Morton is softest.
Greenock Morton: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. Stenhousemuir: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Greenock Morton scores most in the 16-30 band (10 of 48); Greenock Morton concedes most in the 46-60 band (17 of 71); Stenhousemuir scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 62); Stenhousemuir concedes most in the 46-60 band (11 of 39). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Greenock Morton -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 7.
When it concedes
Of 71 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 71 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 48 read -- then won 11, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 48 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Stenhousemuir -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 0.9 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 62 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14.
When it concedes
Of 39 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 6.
The first goal
Scored first in 31 of its 49 read -- then won 24, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 49 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.