Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Greenock Morton: 47 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season. Ayr United: 47 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Greenock Morton's numbers over its games, Ayr United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Greenock Morton's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Ayr United's own 23 away matches read, 8 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games.
The two sides
Greenock Morton -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 47 (43%); over 1.5 in 36 (77%); over 3.5 in 10 (21%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 24 (33%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 47 (55%). At home: 11 of its 24 (46%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 47 (21%); failed to score in 15 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Greenock Morton's own 47 matches read: Greenock Morton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (34%). Greenock Morton itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 24.
Ayr United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 47 (36%); over 1.5 in 33 (70%); over 3.5 in 7 (15%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 23 (43%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 27 of its own 47 (57%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 47 (21%); failed to score in 14 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Ayr United's own 47 matches read: Ayr United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (30%). Ayr United itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 23.
Built 15:37 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.