Scottish Championship, game week 12 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Greenock Morton and Ayr United finished near neighbours last season -- 8th and 7th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Greenock Morton takes 0.95 points a game, Ayr United 1.23 -- nothing between them. -0.09 points a game is the venue form gap, in Ayr United's favour: Greenock Morton takes 1.08 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ayr United 1.17 away. Greenock Morton scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Ayr United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 1-15. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 47 and 21 of 47); Ayr United is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (11 of its 59 conceded before the 16th); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Greenock Morton's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 47; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ayr United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 47.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Greenock Morton 0.95 goals expected, Ayr United 1.19, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Greenock Morton 3.42 (29%), the draw 3.40 (29%), Ayr United 2.42 (41%). The market's averages: 3.13, 3.30 and 2.10. The widest gap is on Ayr United: the market is shorter (2.10) than our 2.42 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.78 (36%), under 2.5 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.01, under 2.5 1.78. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.35 (43%), no 1.74 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.00. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Greenock Morton's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Ayr United's own 23 away matches read, 8 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
This match has kicked off since these figures were built — everything above was read from before kick-off only.
Built 15:37 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.