Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.
Nottingham Forest: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Nottingham Forest scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 54); Nottingham Forest concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 63); Manchester City scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 97); Manchester City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 45). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Nottingham Forest -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.1 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 54 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 54 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 63 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 63 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 47 read -- then won 9, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 47 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Manchester City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.1 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 47 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.0 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 97 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 18.
When it concedes
Of 45 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 8.
The first goal
Scored first in 37 of its 47 read -- then won 28, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 9 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 21 of its 47 read, winning 20 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 18:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.