-0.91 points a game is the venue form gap, in Manchester City's favour: Nottingham Forest takes 0.91 a game at home over the last two seasons, Manchester City 1.83 away.
Nottingham Forest: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so.
The two sides
Nottingham Forest -- at home
Its record at the relevant venue
This season at home: won 0, drew 1, lost 3 of 4, scoring 0 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 4, drew 8, lost 7 of 19, scoring 20 and conceding 23 -- 1.05 points a game.
Its last five league matches
Newest first: lost to Brentford 0-2 away; drew with Ipswich Town 1-1 away; lost to Arsenal 0-1 at home; lost to Crystal Palace 1-3 away; lost to Coventry City 0-1 at home.
The dugout
The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 5 different managers took its 47 matches with one recorded (18, 12, 9, 5, 3 apiece), most recently Oliver Glasner with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures.
Manchester City -- away
Its record at the relevant venue
This season away: won 3, drew 0, lost 1 of 4, scoring 9 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 9, drew 6, lost 4 of 19, scoring 32 and conceding 21 -- 1.74 points a game.
Its last five league matches
Newest first: lost to Brighton & Hove Albion 0-1 at home; lost to Aston Villa 1-2 away; beat Ipswich Town 3-2 at home; beat Liverpool 3-0 away; beat Sunderland 5-3 at home.
The dugout
The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 47 matches with one recorded (37, 9, 1 apiece), most recently Enzo Maresca with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures.
Built 18:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.