Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 57%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Brentford: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Chelsea: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Brentford's numbers over its games, Chelsea's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Brentford's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Chelsea's own 21 away matches read, 13 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 57% of games.
The two sides
Brentford -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 42 (52%); over 1.5 in 35 (83%); over 3.5 in 15 (36%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 21 (57%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 42 (55%). At home: 12 of its 21 (57%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 42 (26%); failed to score in 12 (29%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Brentford's own 42 matches read: Brentford or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (55%). Brentford itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21.
Chelsea -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 42 (69%); over 1.5 in 37 (88%); over 3.5 in 15 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 16 of its 21 (76%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 42 (67%). Away: 15 of its 21 (71%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 42 (21%); failed to score in 7 (17%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chelsea's own 42 matches read: Chelsea or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (57%). Chelsea itself held the lead in 14, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 21.
Built 07:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.