Brentford scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Chelsea scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Brentford's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Chelsea is softest.
Brentford: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Chelsea: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Brentford scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 62); Brentford concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 56); Chelsea scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 68); Chelsea concedes most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 61). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Brentford -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 42 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.0 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 62 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 62 (31%).
When it concedes
Of 56 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 56 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 42 read -- then won 13, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 42 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Chelsea -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 42 league matches; away, 1.7 for and 1.5 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 61 (20%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 42 read -- then won 13, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 42 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 07:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.