Bristol City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Norwich City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Bristol City scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 59); Bristol City concedes most in the 16-30 band (15 of 68); Norwich City scores most in the 61-75 band (23 of 79); Norwich City concedes most in the 1-15 band (14 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Bristol City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 59 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 4 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Norwich City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.7 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 79 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 23; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 65 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 14 of 65 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 17, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 6 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.