Championship, game week 15 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Bristol City and Norwich City finished near neighbours last season -- 12th and 9th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Bristol City takes 1.29 points a game, Norwich City 1.59 -- nothing between them. -0.16 points a game is the venue form gap, in Norwich City's favour: Bristol City takes 1.28 a game at home over the last two seasons, Norwich City 1.44 away. Bristol City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Norwich City scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 1-15. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Norwich City lands the first blow more often (26 of 50 to 18 of 50); Norwich City is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (14 of its 65 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Norwich City's -- two goals clear in 14 of 50, against 10 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Norwich City's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Bristol City finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 59 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Bristol City 1.21 goals expected, Norwich City 1.66, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Bristol City 3.58 (28%), the draw 4.13 (24%), Norwich City 2.09 (48%). The market's averages: 2.65, 3.50 and 2.50. The widest gap is on Bristol City: the market is shorter (2.65) than our 3.58 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.82 (55%), under 2.5 2.22 (45%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.74, under 2.5 2.00. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.76 (57%), no 2.32 (43%). The market's averages: yes 1.60, no 2.38. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Bristol City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Norwich City's own 25 away matches read, 11 (44%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.