Manchester City Women scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Liverpool Women scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Manchester City Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Liverpool Women is softest.
Manchester City Women: 24 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Liverpool Women: 24 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Manchester City Women scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 69); Manchester City Women concedes most in the 61-75 band (6 of 21); Liverpool Women scores most in the 1-15 band (7 of 26); Liverpool Women concedes most in the 76-90+ band (8 of 35). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Manchester City Women -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.9 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 24 league matches; at home, 3.4 for and 0.8 against over 12.
When it scores
Of 69 scored across its own 24 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 69 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 21 conceded across its own 24 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 4.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 24 read -- then won 18, drew 0, lost 1; conceded first in 4 -- pulled back 2 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 24 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 1.
Liverpool Women -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 24 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.6 against over 12.
When it scores
Of 26 scored across its own 24 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 26 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 35 conceded across its own 24 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 8. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 8 of 35 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 9 of its 24 read -- then won 5, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 0 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 24 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Built 00:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.