Scottish Premiership, game week 13 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Rangers the bigger side: 3rd against 11th of 12 last season. Against the block the other keeps: St. Mirren takes 0.41 points a game, Rangers 2.73 -- the block form is Rangers's. -0.68 points a game is the venue form gap, in Rangers's favour: St. Mirren takes 1.16 a game at home over the last two seasons, Rangers 1.84 away. St. Mirren scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Rangers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: St. Mirren's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Rangers is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 38%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Rangers lands the first blow more often (32 of 49 to 20 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Rangers's -- two goals clear in 17 of 49, against 6 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in St. Mirren's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Rangers's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 49; St. Mirren finds its goals latest of all -- 11 of its 42 after the 75th, and Rangers concedes most in that same spell; Rangers finds its goals latest of all -- 25 of its 95 after the 75th, and St. Mirren concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: St. Mirren 0.70 goals expected, Rangers 1.82, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: St. Mirren 7.22 (14%), the draw 4.52 (22%), Rangers 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: 6.20, 4.80 and 1.43. The widest gap is on St. Mirren: the market is shorter (6.20) than our 7.22 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.17 (46%), under 2.5 1.85 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.42. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.37 (42%), no 1.73 (58%). The market's averages: yes 1.69, no 2.05. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In St. Mirren's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (40%). In Rangers's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 38% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.