Scottish Premiership, game week 13 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Dundee United and Motherwell finished near neighbours last season -- 7th and 4th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Dundee United takes 0.75 points a game, Motherwell 1.50 -- the block form is Motherwell's. +0.30 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dundee United's favour: Dundee United takes 1.50 a game at home over the last two seasons, Motherwell 1.20 away. Dundee United scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Motherwell scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Motherwell's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Dundee United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Motherwell lands the first blow more often (27 of 50 to 20 of 49); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Motherwell's -- two goals clear in 16 of 50, against 10 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Dundee United's hands -- ahead without winning in 13 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Motherwell's hands -- ahead without winning in 13 of 50.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Dundee United 1.19 goals expected, Motherwell 1.40, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Dundee United 3.12 (32%), the draw 3.81 (26%), Motherwell 2.40 (42%). The market's averages: 2.05, 3.72 and 3.24. The widest gap is on Motherwell: the market offers 3.24 against our 2.40. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.09 (48%), under 2.5 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.38. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.91 (52%), no 2.10 (48%). The market's averages: yes 1.53, no 2.40. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dundee United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (33%). In Motherwell's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.