Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 62%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Elgin City: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. Dumbarton: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Elgin City's numbers over its games, Dumbarton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Elgin City's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (58%). In Dumbarton's own 24 away matches read, 16 (67%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games.
The two sides
Elgin City -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 48 (58%); over 1.5 in 41 (85%); over 3.5 in 15 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 24 (54%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 48 (58%). At home: 12 of its 24 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 48 (27%); failed to score in 9 (19%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Elgin City's own 48 matches read: Elgin City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (52%). Elgin City itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 24.
Dumbarton -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 48 (58%); over 1.5 in 44 (92%); over 3.5 in 12 (25%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 32 of its own 48 (67%). Away: 16 of its 24 (67%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 48 (12%); failed to score in 11 (23%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Dumbarton's own 48 matches read: Dumbarton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (58%). Dumbarton itself held the lead in 10, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 16 of 24.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.