Scottish League One, game week 14 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
East Kilbride is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Queen of the South takes 0.75 points a game, East Kilbride 1.33 -- the block form is East Kilbride's. -0.16 points a game is the venue form gap, in East Kilbride's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.62 a game at home over the last two seasons, East Kilbride 1.78 away. Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; East Kilbride scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 58%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: East Kilbride lands the first blow more often (28 of 48 to 23 of 49); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often East Kilbride's -- two goals clear in 25 of 48, against 12 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in East Kilbride's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 48; Queen of the South finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 71 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen of the South 1.53 goals expected, East Kilbride 2.02, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: East Kilbride's figures include last season in the Scottish League Two, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Queen of the South 3.41 (29%), the draw 4.66 (21%), East Kilbride 2.03 (49%). The market's averages: 3.85, 3.90 and 1.67. The widest gap is on East Kilbride: the market is shorter (1.67) than our 2.03 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.45 (69%), under 2.5 3.21 (31%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.44, under 2.5 2.62. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.47 (68%), no 3.12 (32%). The market's averages: yes 1.46, no 2.50. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In East Kilbride's own 23 away matches read, 15 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 58% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.