# Greenock Morton v Stenhousemuir — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 14 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Greenock Morton: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. Stenhousemuir: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Greenock Morton takes 0.00 points a game, Stenhousemuir 1.92 -- the block form is Stenhousemuir's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Greenock Morton -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 10 after 12 games, with 10 points. Last season it finished 8th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (8th to 10th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 12 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 0, lost 3 of 3 -- 0 points of 9. At home against them: won 0 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 5, lost 7 of 16 (1.06 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 8, lost 9 of 21 (0.95 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 2, lost 3 of 8 (1.38 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 3 of 3 (0.00 a game). ### Stenhousemuir -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 10 after 13 games, with 23 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League One, where it finished 2nd of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (8th to 10th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 4, lost 2 of 13 -- 25 points of 39. At home against them: won 4 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 5, lost 1 of 11 (1.82 a game); against the middle block won 11, drew 6, lost 4 of 21 (1.86 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 2 of 13 (1.92 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4 (1.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.58 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Greenock Morton takes 1.08 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stenhousemuir 1.67 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Greenock Morton -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 5 of 6, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Last season at home: won 5, drew 8, lost 5 of 18, scoring 16 and conceding 18 -- 1.28 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Partick Thistle 3-2 away; beat Queen's Park 2-0 at home; beat Arbroath 2-1 away; lost to Raith Rovers 1-2 at home; lost to Inverness CT 0-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 25 matches with one recorded (18, 7 apiece), most recently Ian Murray with 18. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Stenhousemuir -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 3, drew 1, lost 2 of 6, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Last season away in the Scottish League One: won 8, drew 6, lost 4 of 18, scoring 19 and conceding 15 -- 1.67 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Livingston 0-3 at home; lost to Dunfermline Athletic 0-1 at home; lost to Partick Thistle 0-3 away; drew with Raith Rovers 1-1 at home; lost to Inverness CT 0-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 26 matches with one recorded (13, 13 apiece), most recently Marvin Bartley with 13. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Greenock Morton scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Stenhousemuir's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Greenock Morton is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Greenock Morton scores most in the 16-30 band (10 of 48); Greenock Morton concedes most in the 46-60 band (17 of 71); Stenhousemuir scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 62); Stenhousemuir concedes most in the 46-60 band (11 of 39). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Greenock Morton -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.2 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 48 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 7. - **When it concedes:** Of 71 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 71 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 48 read -- then won 11, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 48 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Stenhousemuir -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 0.9 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 62 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14. - **When it concedes:** Of 39 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 6. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 31 of its 49 read -- then won 24, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 49 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 37% of their games, both teams scoring in 45%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Greenock Morton's numbers over its games, Stenhousemuir's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Greenock Morton's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Stenhousemuir's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games. ### Greenock Morton -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 48 (44%); over 1.5 in 37 (77%); over 3.5 in 11 (23%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 24 (33%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 48 (56%). At home: 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 48 (21%); failed to score in 15 (31%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Greenock Morton's own 48 matches read: Greenock Morton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (33%). Greenock Morton itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 24. ### Stenhousemuir -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 49 (31%); over 1.5 in 31 (63%); over 3.5 in 9 (18%). Away: over 2.5 in 5 of its 24 (21%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 17 of its own 49 (35%). Away: 7 of its 24 (29%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 24 of its own 49 (49%); failed to score in 12 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stenhousemuir's own 49 matches read: Stenhousemuir or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (43%). Stenhousemuir itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Greenock Morton takes 0.00 points a game, Stenhousemuir 1.92 -- the block form is Stenhousemuir's. -0.58 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Greenock Morton takes 1.08 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stenhousemuir 1.67 away. Greenock Morton scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Stenhousemuir's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Greenock Morton is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 37% of their games, both teams scoring in 45%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 35%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Stenhousemuir lands the first blow more often (31 of 49 to 21 of 48); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Stenhousemuir's -- two goals clear in 13 of 49, against 7 of 48; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Greenock Morton's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 48. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Greenock Morton 0.70 goals expected, Stenhousemuir 1.08, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Stenhousemuir's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Greenock Morton 4.24 (24%), the draw 3.10 (32%), Stenhousemuir 2.27 (44%). The market's averages: 2.50, 3.25 and 2.40. The widest gap is on Greenock Morton: the market is shorter (2.50) than our 4.24 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 3.80 (26%), under 2.5 1.36 (74%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.10, under 2.5 1.73. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 3.02 (33%), no 1.50 (67%). The market's averages: yes 1.76, no 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Greenock Morton's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Stenhousemuir's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 35% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-11-07/greenock-morton-v-stenhousemuir/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T18:04:27+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.