Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Arbroath: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Ayr United: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arbroath's numbers over its games, Ayr United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arbroath's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (46%). In Ayr United's own 23 away matches read, 8 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games.
The two sides
Arbroath -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 49 (45%); over 1.5 in 33 (67%); over 3.5 in 9 (18%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 49 (47%). At home: 14 of its 24 (58%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 49 (24%); failed to score in 21 (43%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arbroath's own 49 matches read: Arbroath or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (43%). Arbroath itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 24.
Ayr United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 48 (38%); over 1.5 in 34 (71%); over 3.5 in 8 (17%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 23 (43%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 48 (58%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 48 (21%); failed to score in 14 (29%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Ayr United's own 48 matches read: Ayr United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (29%). Ayr United itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 23.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.