# Arbroath v Ayr United — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 14 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Arbroath: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Ayr United: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Arbroath the bigger side: 3rd against 7th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Arbroath takes 1.43 points a game, Ayr United 0.80 -- the block form is Arbroath's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Arbroath -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 10 after 13 games, with 11 points. Last season it finished 3rd of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 3rd). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 13 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 8, drew 6, lost 7 of 21 -- 30 points of 63. At home against them: won 5 of 11. Away against them: won 3 of 10. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 3, lost 4 of 9 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 6, lost 7 of 21 (1.43 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 5, lost 4 of 14 (1.43 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 3 of 5 (0.80 a game). ### Ayr United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 10 after 12 games, with 15 points. Last season it finished 7th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 12 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 3rd). Against that block it has won 2, drew 6, lost 7 of 15 -- 12 points of 45. At home against them: won 2 of 8. Away against them: won 0 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 7 of 15 (0.80 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 5, lost 6 of 17 (1.35 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 7, lost 3 of 13 (1.23 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.49 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arbroath's favour: Arbroath takes 1.67 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ayr United 1.17 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Arbroath -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 2, lost 2 of 6, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Last season at home: won 8, drew 8, lost 2 of 18, scoring 27 and conceding 20 -- 1.78 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Raith Rovers 0-4 at home; lost to Livingston 0-1 away; lost to Inverness CT 0-2 away; lost to Greenock Morton 1-2 at home; lost to Partick Thistle 0-3 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 26 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Colin Hamilton. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Ayr United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 2 of 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Last season away: won 4, drew 8, lost 6 of 18, scoring 21 and conceding 25 -- 1.11 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Queen's Park 3-2 at home; lost to Partick Thistle 0-1 at home; drew with Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 at home; beat Livingston 2-1 away; lost to Stenhousemuir 0-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 24 matches with one recorded (12, 6, 6 apiece), most recently Gary Naysmith with 12. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Arbroath scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Ayr United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Arbroath's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ayr United is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Arbroath scores most in the 46-60 band (13 of 50); Arbroath concedes most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 63); Ayr United scores most in the 16-30 band (12 of 51); Ayr United concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 61). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Arbroath -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 63 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 63 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 49 read -- then won 14, drew 6, lost 2; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 2 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 49 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ### Ayr United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 51 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 9. - **When it concedes:** Of 61 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 61 (20%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 48 read -- then won 12, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 48 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arbroath's numbers over its games, Ayr United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arbroath's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (46%). In Ayr United's own 23 away matches read, 8 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. ### Arbroath -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 49 (45%); over 1.5 in 33 (67%); over 3.5 in 9 (18%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 49 (47%). At home: 14 of its 24 (58%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 49 (24%); failed to score in 21 (43%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Arbroath's own 49 matches read: Arbroath or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (43%). Arbroath itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 24. ### Ayr United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 48 (38%); over 1.5 in 34 (71%); over 3.5 in 8 (17%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 23 (43%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 48 (58%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 48 (21%); failed to score in 14 (29%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Ayr United's own 48 matches read: Ayr United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (29%). Ayr United itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Arbroath the bigger side: 3rd against 7th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Arbroath takes 1.43 points a game, Ayr United 0.80 -- the block form is Arbroath's. +0.49 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arbroath's favour: Arbroath takes 1.67 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ayr United 1.17 away. Arbroath scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Ayr United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Arbroath's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ayr United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (22 of 49 and 22 of 48); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Arbroath's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ayr United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 48. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Arbroath 1.31 goals expected, Ayr United 1.19, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Arbroath 2.54 (39%), the draw 3.71 (27%), Ayr United 2.97 (34%). The market's averages: 2.80, 3.10 and 2.30. The widest gap is on Ayr United: the market is shorter (2.30) than our 2.97 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.20 (45%), under 2.5 1.83 (55%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.15, under 2.5 1.67. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.97 (51%), no 2.03 (49%). The market's averages: yes 1.80, no 1.89. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arbroath's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (46%). In Ayr United's own 23 away matches read, 8 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-11-07/arbroath-v-ayr-united/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T18:04:32+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.