# Greenock Morton v Ayr United — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 12 — Saturday, 24 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Greenock Morton: 47 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season. Ayr United: 47 league matches in the bank, 11 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Greenock Morton and Ayr United finished near neighbours last season -- 8th and 7th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Greenock Morton takes 0.95 points a game, Ayr United 1.23 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Greenock Morton -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 10 after 11 games, with 7 points. Last season it finished 8th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (8th to 10th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 11 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 8, lost 9 of 21 -- 20 points of 63. At home against them: won 3 of 11. Away against them: won 1 of 10. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 5, lost 7 of 15 (0.93 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 8, lost 9 of 21 (0.95 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 2, lost 3 of 8 (1.38 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 3 of 3 (0.00 a game). ### Ayr United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 10 after 11 games, with 12 points. Last season it finished 7th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 11 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (8th to 10th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 7, lost 3 of 13 -- 16 points of 39. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 1 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 7 of 15 (0.80 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 5, lost 6 of 16 (1.25 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 7, lost 3 of 13 (1.23 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.09 points a game is the venue form gap, in Ayr United's favour: Greenock Morton takes 1.08 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ayr United 1.17 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Greenock Morton -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 5 of 6, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Last season at home: won 5, drew 8, lost 5 of 18, scoring 16 and conceding 18 -- 1.28 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Queen's Park 2-0 at home; beat Arbroath 2-1 away; lost to Raith Rovers 1-2 at home; lost to Inverness CT 0-2 away; lost to Dunfermline Athletic 0-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 24 matches with one recorded (17, 7 apiece), most recently Ian Murray with 17. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Ayr United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 2 of 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Last season away: won 4, drew 8, lost 6 of 18, scoring 21 and conceding 25 -- 1.11 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Partick Thistle 0-1 at home; drew with Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 at home; beat Livingston 2-1 away; lost to Stenhousemuir 0-1 at home; beat Queen's Park 2-0 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 23 matches with one recorded (11, 6, 6 apiece), most recently Gary Naysmith with 11. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Greenock Morton scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Ayr United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 1-15.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Greenock Morton scores most in the 16-30 band (10 of 45); Greenock Morton concedes most in the 46-60 band (17 of 69); Ayr United scores most in the 16-30 band (11 of 48); Ayr United concedes most in the 1-15 band (11 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Greenock Morton -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.2 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 45 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7. - **When it concedes:** Of 69 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 69 (25%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 47 read -- then won 10, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 47 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Ayr United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 47 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 48 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 8. - **When it concedes:** Of 59 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 59 (19%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 47 read -- then won 11, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 47 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Greenock Morton's numbers over its games, Ayr United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Greenock Morton's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Ayr United's own 23 away matches read, 8 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. ### Greenock Morton -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 47 (43%); over 1.5 in 36 (77%); over 3.5 in 10 (21%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 24 (33%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 47 (55%). At home: 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 47 (21%); failed to score in 15 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Greenock Morton's own 47 matches read: Greenock Morton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (34%). Greenock Morton itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 24. ### Ayr United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 47 (36%); over 1.5 in 33 (70%); over 3.5 in 7 (15%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 23 (43%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 47 (57%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 47 (21%); failed to score in 14 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Ayr United's own 47 matches read: Ayr United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (30%). Ayr United itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Greenock Morton and Ayr United finished near neighbours last season -- 8th and 7th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Greenock Morton takes 0.95 points a game, Ayr United 1.23 -- nothing between them. -0.09 points a game is the venue form gap, in Ayr United's favour: Greenock Morton takes 1.08 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ayr United 1.17 away. Greenock Morton scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Ayr United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 1-15. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 47 and 21 of 47); Ayr United is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (11 of its 59 conceded before the 16th); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Greenock Morton's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 47; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ayr United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 47. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Greenock Morton 0.95 goals expected, Ayr United 1.19, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Greenock Morton 3.42 (29%), the draw 3.40 (29%), Ayr United 2.42 (41%). The market's averages: 3.13, 3.30 and 2.10. The widest gap is on Ayr United: the market is shorter (2.10) than our 2.42 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.78 (36%), under 2.5 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.01, under 2.5 1.78. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.35 (43%), no 1.74 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.00. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Greenock Morton's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Ayr United's own 23 away matches read, 8 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-10-24/greenock-morton-v-ayr-united/halftime/ Built 2026-10-24T14:37:21+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.