National League, game week 9 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Yeovil Town and Solihull Moors finished near neighbours last season -- 16th and 14th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Yeovil Town takes 1.93 points a game, Solihull Moors 0.93 -- the block form is Yeovil Town's. +0.27 points a game is the venue form gap, in Yeovil Town's favour: Yeovil Town takes 1.40 a game at home over the last two seasons, Solihull Moors 1.12 away. Yeovil Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Solihull Moors scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Yeovil Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Solihull Moors is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (25 of 50 and 27 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Yeovil Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Solihull Moors's hands -- ahead without winning in 14 of 50; Yeovil Town finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 60 after the 75th, and Solihull Moors concedes most in that same spell; Solihull Moors finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 75 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Yeovil Town 1.37 goals expected, Solihull Moors 1.47, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Yeovil Town 2.84 (35%), the draw 4.00 (25%), Solihull Moors 2.52 (40%). The market's averages: 1.88, 3.40 and 3.50. The widest gap is on Solihull Moors: the market offers 3.50 against our 2.52. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.85 (54%), under 2.5 2.18 (46%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.61, under 2.5 2.24. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.74 (57%), no 2.35 (43%). The market's averages: yes 1.55, no 2.27. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Yeovil Town's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (56%). In Solihull Moors's own 24 away matches read, 12 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 06:31 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.