# Fulham v Newcastle United — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 10 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Fulham: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Newcastle United: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Fulham and Newcastle United finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 12th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Fulham takes 1.43 points a game, Newcastle United 1.00 -- the block form is Fulham's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Fulham -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 15th of 20 after 9 games, with 9 points. Last season it finished 11th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (7th to 13th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (7th to 13th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 2, lost 6 of 14 -- 20 points of 42. At home against them: won 5 of 7. Away against them: won 1 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 5, lost 9 of 15 (0.53 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 2, lost 6 of 14 (1.43 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 3, lost 4 of 15 (1.80 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game). ### Newcastle United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 13th of 20 after 9 games, with 11 points. Last season it finished 12th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (7th to 13th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (7th to 13th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 1, lost 8 of 13 -- 13 points of 39. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 2 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 9 of 15 (0.67 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 1, lost 8 of 13 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 10, drew 4, lost 3 of 17 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.70 points a game is the venue form gap, in Fulham's favour: Fulham takes 1.70 a game at home over the last two seasons, Newcastle United 1.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Fulham -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 1, lost 2 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Last season at home: won 11, drew 2, lost 6 of 19, scoring 30 and conceding 20 -- 1.84 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Aston Villa 1-1 away; beat Coventry City 1-0 away; beat Hull City 1-0 at home; lost to Ipswich Town 1-2 away; drew with Manchester United 1-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 47 matches with one recorded (38, 9 apiece), most recently Álvaro Arbeloa Coca with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Newcastle United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Last season away: won 4, drew 5, lost 10 of 19, scoring 17 and conceding 25 -- 0.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Everton 0-1 at home; beat Crystal Palace 2-0 away; lost to Aston Villa 0-1 at home; lost to Coventry City 1-4 away; beat Hull City 2-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 47 matches with one recorded (38, 9 apiece), most recently Matthias Jaissle with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Fulham scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Newcastle United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Fulham's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Newcastle United is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Fulham scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 56); Fulham concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 62); Newcastle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 65); Newcastle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 70). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Fulham -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 56 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 56 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 62 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 62 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 47 read -- then won 14, drew 2, lost 5; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 47 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Newcastle United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 47 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.4 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 65 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 65 (23%). - **When it concedes:** Of 70 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 70 (34%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 27 of its 47 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 7; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 47 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 37%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Fulham's numbers over its games, Newcastle United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Fulham's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (30%). In Newcastle United's own 23 away matches read, 10 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 37% of games. ### Fulham -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 47 (47%); over 1.5 in 32 (68%); over 3.5 in 11 (23%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 47 (53%). At home: 13 of its 23 (57%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 47 (26%); failed to score in 13 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Fulham's own 47 matches read: Fulham or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (38%). Fulham itself held the lead in 8, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 23. ### Newcastle United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 47 (62%); over 1.5 in 36 (77%); over 3.5 in 17 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 23 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 47 (64%). Away: 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 47 (21%); failed to score in 11 (23%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Newcastle United's own 47 matches read: Newcastle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (43%). Newcastle United itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Fulham and Newcastle United finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 12th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Fulham takes 1.43 points a game, Newcastle United 1.00 -- the block form is Fulham's. +0.70 points a game is the venue form gap, in Fulham's favour: Fulham takes 1.70 a game at home over the last two seasons, Newcastle United 1.00 away. Fulham scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Newcastle United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Fulham's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Newcastle United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 37%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Newcastle United lands the first blow more often (27 of 47 to 21 of 47); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Newcastle United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 47; Fulham finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 56 after the 75th, and Newcastle United concedes most in that same spell; Newcastle United finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 65 after the 75th, and Fulham concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Fulham 1.48 goals expected, Newcastle United 1.01, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Fulham 2.08 (48%), the draw 3.83 (26%), Newcastle United 3.87 (26%). The market's averages: 2.05, 3.71 and 3.40. All three outcomes sit close to our numbers -- no argument either way. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.20 (46%), under 2.5 1.84 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.67, under 2.5 2.29. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.03 (49%), no 1.97 (51%). The market's averages: yes 1.53, no 2.38. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Fulham's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (30%). In Newcastle United's own 23 away matches read, 10 (43%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 37% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-11-07/fulham-v-newcastle-united/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T18:04:34+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.