Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Arsenal: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Hull City: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arsenal's numbers over its games, Hull City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arsenal's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (52%). In Hull City's own 24 away matches read, 9 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games.
The two sides
Arsenal -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 47 (51%); over 1.5 in 33 (70%); over 3.5 in 9 (19%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 47 (43%). At home: 10 of its 23 (43%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 25 of its own 47 (53%); failed to score in 4 (9%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arsenal's own 47 matches read: Arsenal or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (43%). Arsenal itself held the lead in 19, winning 18. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23.
Hull City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 36 (72%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 24 (62%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 14 of its 24 (58%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 50 (32%); failed to score in 9 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Hull City's own 50 matches read: Hull City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Hull City itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 24.
Built 18:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.