# Arsenal v Hull City — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 10 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Arsenal: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Hull City: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Hull City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Arsenal -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 20 after 9 games, with 24 points. Last season it finished 1st of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 6th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1. At home against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 5 of 12 (1.42 a game); against the middle block won 14, drew 3, lost 1 of 18 (2.50 a game); against the bottom block won 14, drew 2, lost 0 of 16 (2.75 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Hull City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 12th of 20 after 9 games, with 11 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Championship, where it finished 6th of 24. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 6th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 3, lost 5 of 17 -- 30 points of 51. At home against them: won 4 of 10. Away against them: won 5 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 9, drew 3, lost 5 of 17 (1.76 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 5, lost 6 of 17 (1.35 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 3 of 14 (1.79 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.90 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arsenal's favour: Arsenal takes 2.57 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hull City 1.67 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Arsenal -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 4, drew 0, lost 0 of 4, scoring 9 and conceding 2. Last season at home: won 15, drew 2, lost 2 of 19, scoring 41 and conceding 11 -- 2.47 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Liverpool 1-0 away; beat Everton 2-0 at home; beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 away; beat Leeds United 2-1 at home; lost to Brighton & Hove Albion 0-3 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 47 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mikel Arteta Amatriain. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Hull City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 2 of 4, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Last season away in the Championship: won 11, drew 3, lost 6 of 20, scoring 32 and conceding 24 -- 1.80 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Ipswich Town 2-2 at home; drew with Brentford 1-1 at home; lost to Fulham 0-1 away; drew with Everton 2-2 at home; lost to Newcastle United 1-2 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 36 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Sergej Jakirovic. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Arsenal scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hull City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Arsenal scores most in the 46-60 band (19 of 85); Arsenal concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 32); Hull City scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 71); Hull City concedes most in the 61-75 band (13 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Arsenal -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 0.6 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 85 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 19; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 18. - **When it concedes:** Of 32 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 32 (28%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 33 of its 47 read -- then won 30, drew 2, lost 1; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 19 of its 47 read, winning 18 of them; trailed by two in 1, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ### Hull City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.2 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 71 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 11. - **When it concedes:** Of 60 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arsenal's numbers over its games, Hull City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arsenal's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (52%). In Hull City's own 24 away matches read, 9 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. ### Arsenal -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 47 (51%); over 1.5 in 33 (70%); over 3.5 in 9 (19%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 47 (43%). At home: 10 of its 23 (43%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 25 of its own 47 (53%); failed to score in 4 (9%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Arsenal's own 47 matches read: Arsenal or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (43%). Arsenal itself held the lead in 19, winning 18. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23. ### Hull City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 36 (72%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 24 (62%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 14 of its 24 (58%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 50 (32%); failed to score in 9 (18%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Hull City's own 50 matches read: Hull City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Hull City itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Hull City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.90 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arsenal's favour: Arsenal takes 2.57 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hull City 1.67 away. Arsenal scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hull City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Arsenal lands the first blow more often (33 of 47 to 28 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Arsenal's -- two goals clear in 19 of 47, against 13 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Hull City's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Arsenal 1.70 goals expected, Hull City 0.83, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Hull City's figures include last season in the Championship, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Arsenal 1.72 (58%), the draw 4.19 (24%), Hull City 5.54 (18%). The market's averages: 1.18, 7.10 and 17. The widest gap is on Hull City: the market offers 17 against our 5.54. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.16 (46%), under 2.5 1.86 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.49, under 2.5 2.58. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.17 (46%), no 1.85 (54%). The market's averages: yes 2.29, no 1.55. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arsenal's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (52%). In Hull City's own 24 away matches read, 9 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-11-07/arsenal-v-hull-city/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T18:04:35+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.