# Portsmouth v Stoke City — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 15 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Stoke City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Portsmouth and Stoke City finished near neighbours last season -- 18th and 17th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Portsmouth takes 2.08 points a game, Stoke City 1.85 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 24 after 14 games, with 22 points. Last season it finished 18th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 4, lost 1 of 12 -- 25 points of 36. At home against them: won 4 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 5. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 3, lost 8 of 16 (1.12 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 4, lost 11 of 18 (0.72 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 1 of 12 (2.08 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 2, lost 0 of 4 (2.00 a game). ### Stoke City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 24 after 14 games, with 26 points. Last season it finished 17th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 3, lost 3 of 13 -- 24 points of 39. At home against them: won 4 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 1, lost 12 of 15 (0.47 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 4, lost 7 of 19 (1.47 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 3, lost 3 of 13 (1.85 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.36 points a game is the venue form gap, in Portsmouth's favour: Portsmouth takes 1.44 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stoke City 1.08 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 4, drew 1, lost 2 of 7, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Last season at home: won 6, drew 5, lost 7 of 18, scoring 20 and conceding 17 -- 1.28 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Swansea City 3-1 at home; drew with Burnley 0-0 away; beat Millwall 2-1 at home; drew with Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-1 away; beat Norwich City 1-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 33 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John Mousinho. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Stoke City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 4, drew 1, lost 2 of 7, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Last season away: won 4, drew 2, lost 12 of 18, scoring 11 and conceding 25 -- 0.78 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Blackburn Rovers 2-1 away; beat Preston North End 2-0 at home; drew with Bristol City 0-0 at home; beat Derby County 1-0 away; lost to Middlesbrough 2-3 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 35 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mark Robins. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Portsmouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Stoke City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Portsmouth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stoke City is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Portsmouth scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 59); Portsmouth concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 70); Stoke City scores most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 61); Stoke City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 67). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.1 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 59 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 59 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 70 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 70 (20%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Stoke City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.4 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 61 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 8. - **When it concedes:** Of 67 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 67 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 17, drew 3, lost 5; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 1 win and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Portsmouth's numbers over its games, Stoke City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (40%). In Stoke City's own 25 away matches read, 15 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 15 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Portsmouth's own 50 matches read: Portsmouth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Portsmouth itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 25. ### Stoke City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 50 (52%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 25 (40%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 10 of its 25 (40%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 50 (28%); failed to score in 15 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stoke City's own 50 matches read: Stoke City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Stoke City itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Portsmouth and Stoke City finished near neighbours last season -- 18th and 17th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Portsmouth takes 2.08 points a game, Stoke City 1.85 -- nothing between them. +0.36 points a game is the venue form gap, in Portsmouth's favour: Portsmouth takes 1.44 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stoke City 1.08 away. Portsmouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Stoke City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Portsmouth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stoke City is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (24 of 50 and 25 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Portsmouth's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stoke City's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; Portsmouth finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 59 after the 75th, and Stoke City concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Portsmouth 1.37 goals expected, Stoke City 0.86, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Portsmouth 2.05 (49%), the draw 3.61 (28%), Stoke City 4.24 (24%). The market's averages: 2.37, 3.25 and 2.75. The widest gap is on Stoke City: the market is shorter (2.75) than our 4.24 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.59 (39%), under 2.5 1.63 (61%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.22, under 2.5 1.68. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.32 (43%), no 1.76 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.87, no 1.90. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (40%). In Stoke City's own 25 away matches read, 15 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-11-07/portsmouth-v-stoke-city/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T18:04:05+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.