Birmingham City and Swansea City finished near neighbours last season -- 10th and 11th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Birmingham City takes 1.72 points a game, Swansea City 1.53 -- nothing between them.
Birmingham City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Swansea City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart?
The two sides
Birmingham City -- at home
Where it stands
Stands 4th of 24 after 14 games, with 26 points. Last season it finished 10th of 24 in this division.
Its block
By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old.
Against today's opponent's block
Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 4, lost 5 of 18 -- 31 points of 54. At home against them: won 7 of 9. Away against them: won 2 of 9.
Across all the blocks
Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 5, lost 6 of 17 (1.35 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 4, lost 5 of 18 (1.72 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 5, lost 2 of 12 (1.67 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game).
Swansea City -- away
Where it stands
Stands 5th of 24 after 14 games, with 26 points. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division.
Its block
By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old.
Against today's opponent's block
Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 5, lost 4 of 15 -- 23 points of 45. At home against them: won 4 of 8. Away against them: won 2 of 7.
Across all the blocks
Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 2, lost 11 of 16 (0.69 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 5, lost 4 of 15 (1.53 a game); against the bottom block won 12, drew 1, lost 3 of 16 (2.31 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game).
Built 18:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.