# Birmingham City v Swansea City — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 15 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Birmingham City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Swansea City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Birmingham City and Swansea City finished near neighbours last season -- 10th and 11th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Birmingham City takes 1.72 points a game, Swansea City 1.53 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Birmingham City -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 24 after 14 games, with 26 points. Last season it finished 10th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 4, lost 5 of 18 -- 31 points of 54. At home against them: won 7 of 9. Away against them: won 2 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 5, lost 6 of 17 (1.35 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 4, lost 5 of 18 (1.72 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 5, lost 2 of 12 (1.67 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game). ### Swansea City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 24 after 14 games, with 26 points. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 5, lost 4 of 15 -- 23 points of 45. At home against them: won 4 of 8. Away against them: won 2 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 2, lost 11 of 16 (0.69 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 5, lost 4 of 15 (1.53 a game); against the bottom block won 12, drew 1, lost 3 of 16 (2.31 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.76 points a game is the venue form gap, in Birmingham City's favour: Birmingham City takes 1.96 a game at home over the last two seasons, Swansea City 1.20 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Birmingham City -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 4, lost 0 of 7, scoring 17 and conceding 7. Last season at home: won 10, drew 6, lost 2 of 18, scoring 32 and conceding 16 -- 2.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Millwall 3-0 at home; beat Lincoln City 3-1 away; lost to Cardiff City 0-1 away; beat Queens Park Rangers 3-0 at home; beat Preston North End 4-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 35 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Chris Davies. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Swansea City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 4, drew 0, lost 3 of 7, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Last season away: won 5, drew 3, lost 10 of 18, scoring 19 and conceding 29 -- 1.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Portsmouth 1-3 away; beat Blackburn Rovers 4-0 at home; lost to Queens Park Rangers 0-5 away; lost to West Ham United 0-1 at home; beat Millwall 1-0 away. - **The dugout:** Our feed records no manager against any of its banked matches, so the dugout cannot be read. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Birmingham City scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Swansea City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Birmingham City scores most in the 16-30 band (15 of 73); Birmingham City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 55); Swansea City scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 68); Swansea City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Birmingham City -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 0.9 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 73 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 9. - **When it concedes:** Of 55 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 4. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 20, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 1 win and 9 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Swansea City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.7 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 68 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 68 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 65 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 54%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Birmingham City's numbers over its games, Swansea City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Birmingham City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Swansea City's own 25 away matches read, 16 (64%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 54% of games. ### Birmingham City -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). At home: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). At home: 16 of its 25 (64%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 10 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Birmingham City's own 50 matches read: Birmingham City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Birmingham City itself held the lead in 14, winning 14. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 25. ### Swansea City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 39 (78%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 16 of its 25 (64%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 15 of its own 50 (30%); failed to score in 11 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Swansea City's own 50 matches read: Swansea City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Swansea City itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 16 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Birmingham City and Swansea City finished near neighbours last season -- 10th and 11th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Birmingham City takes 1.72 points a game, Swansea City 1.53 -- nothing between them. +0.76 points a game is the venue form gap, in Birmingham City's favour: Birmingham City takes 1.96 a game at home over the last two seasons, Swansea City 1.20 away. Birmingham City scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Swansea City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 54%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (25 of 50 and 23 of 50); Swansea City finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 68 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Birmingham City 2.16 goals expected, Swansea City 0.95, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Birmingham City 1.54 (65%), the draw 5.12 (20%), Swansea City 6.47 (15%). The market's averages: 1.80, 3.43 and 3.62. The widest gap is on Swansea City: the market is shorter (3.62) than our 6.47 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.67 (60%), under 2.5 2.50 (40%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.87, under 2.5 1.90. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.85 (54%), no 2.18 (46%). The market's averages: yes 1.73, no 1.97. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Birmingham City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Swansea City's own 25 away matches read, 16 (64%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 54% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-11-07/birmingham-city-v-swansea-city/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T18:05:01+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.