# Derby County v Bolton Wanderers — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 15 — Friday, 6 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Derby County: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Bolton Wanderers: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Bolton Wanderers is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Derby County takes 0.67 points a game, Bolton Wanderers 1.47 -- the block form is Bolton Wanderers's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Derby County -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 23rd of 24 after 14 games, with 7 points. Last season it finished 8th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 2, lost 1 of 3 -- 2 points of 9. At home against them: won 0 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 8 of 12 (0.67 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 2, lost 8 of 19 (1.53 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 2, lost 5 of 16 (1.81 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 2, lost 1 of 3 (0.67 a game). ### Bolton Wanderers -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 17th of 24 after 14 games, with 17 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the League One, where it finished 3rd of 24. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 7, lost 4 of 17 -- 25 points of 51. At home against them: won 4 of 8. Away against them: won 2 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 7, lost 4 of 17 (1.47 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 6, lost 4 of 16 (1.50 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 2, lost 3 of 13 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4 (1.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.10 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bolton Wanderers's favour: Derby County takes 1.40 a game at home over the last two seasons, Bolton Wanderers 1.50 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Derby County -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 2, lost 5 of 7, scoring 4 and conceding 14. Last season at home: won 10, drew 3, lost 5 of 18, scoring 25 and conceding 18 -- 1.83 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Norwich City 0-4 at home; lost to Millwall 1-4 away; drew with Sheffield United 1-1 away; lost to Stoke City 0-1 at home; lost to Queens Park Rangers 1-4 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 36 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John Eustace. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Bolton Wanderers -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 3, drew 2, lost 2 of 7, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Last season away in the League One: won 6, drew 7, lost 4 of 17, scoring 20 and conceding 17 -- 1.47 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Charlton Athletic 1-0 away; lost to Bristol City 2-3 at home; lost to Middlesbrough 1-5 at home; drew with Southampton 0-0 away; beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 24 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Steven Schumacher. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Derby County scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Bolton Wanderers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Derby County's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Bolton Wanderers is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Derby County scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 67); Derby County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 72); Bolton Wanderers scores most in the 76-90+ band (26 of 77); Bolton Wanderers concedes most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 64). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Derby County -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.3 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 67 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12. - **When it concedes:** Of 72 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 72 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Bolton Wanderers -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 77 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 26. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 26 of 77 (34%). - **When it concedes:** Of 64 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 26%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Derby County's numbers over its games, Bolton Wanderers's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Derby County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (28%). In Bolton Wanderers's own 24 away matches read, 6 (25%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 26% of games. ### Derby County -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 31 of its own 50 (62%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 7 (14%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Derby County's own 50 matches read: Derby County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (38%). Derby County itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 25. ### Bolton Wanderers -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 33 (66%); over 3.5 in 19 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 24 (38%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). Away: 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 15 of its own 50 (30%); failed to score in 11 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Bolton Wanderers's own 50 matches read: Bolton Wanderers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (30%). Bolton Wanderers itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Bolton Wanderers is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Derby County takes 0.67 points a game, Bolton Wanderers 1.47 -- the block form is Bolton Wanderers's. -0.10 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bolton Wanderers's favour: Derby County takes 1.40 a game at home over the last two seasons, Bolton Wanderers 1.50 away. Derby County scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Bolton Wanderers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Derby County's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Bolton Wanderers is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 26%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (28 of 50 and 26 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Derby County's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Bolton Wanderers's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; Bolton Wanderers finds its goals latest of all -- 26 of its 77 after the 75th, and Derby County concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Derby County 1.05 goals expected, Bolton Wanderers 1.31, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Bolton Wanderers's figures include last season in the League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Derby County 3.35 (30%), the draw 3.61 (28%), Bolton Wanderers 2.35 (42%). The market's averages: 2.25, 3.60 and 2.75. The widest gap is on Derby County: the market is shorter (2.25) than our 3.35 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.39 (42%), under 2.5 1.72 (58%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.65, under 2.5 2.20. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.11 (47%), no 1.90 (53%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.31. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Derby County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (28%). In Bolton Wanderers's own 24 away matches read, 6 (25%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 26% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-11-06/derby-county-v-bolton-wanderers/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T18:04:02+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.